Expanding an existing operation
How to diagnose 3–5 years of operating trends from your production, downtime, quality and cost reports
If your operation has been running for years, the best evidence for the next investment is already in your files. This guide shows how to line it up, normalise it and read it before anyone quotes equipment.
Short answer
Collect monthly figures for output, operating hours, downtime by cause, rejects and rework, energy and water, maintenance cost and labour hours for the last 3–5 years. Convert them into per-unit and per-hour ratios so that changes in volume do not hide changes in performance. Mark known events (new product, line change, staff change, extreme weather), then compare years on the same basis. A trend that worsens in one ratio while others stay flat points to a specific cause; a general decline across all ratios usually points to ageing equipment or management practice. Where data is missing, record the gap and use a short, deliberate measurement period instead of guessing.
Which reports do you need, and how far back?
Three years is usually the minimum to separate a trend from one bad season; five years is better for equipment ageing. Monthly data is enough for most decisions.
| Data | Typical source | Use it to calculate |
|---|---|---|
| Output (good units, tonnes, crates) | Production reports, ERP | Output per operating hour |
| Operating and planned hours | Shift logs | Utilisation |
| Downtime with causes | Maintenance log, CMMS, shift notes | Availability, top loss causes |
| Rejects, rework, customer claims | Quality records | Yield, first-pass quality |
| Energy, water, consumables | Utility bills, meters | Consumption per unit |
| Maintenance cost and spare parts | Accounts, CMMS | Maintenance cost per unit and per asset |
| Labour hours | Payroll, rosters | Labour hours per unit |
Key point: Use ratios per unit or per hour, not totals.
How do you normalise the data so years are comparable?
- Use one unit of output across all years (for example good tonnes, not gross)
- Separate planned stops (cleaning, changeovers, holidays) from unplanned downtime
- Adjust costs for price changes by also tracking quantities (kWh, litres, hours), not only money
- Note product-mix changes, because some products run slower by design
- Mark one-off events so they can be excluded or explained
How do you read the trends?
| Pattern | What it often indicates | What to check next |
|---|---|---|
| Output per hour falling, downtime stable | Speed losses, product mix, operator practice | Rated vs actual speed per product |
| Unplanned downtime rising on one asset | Ageing or poorly maintained equipment | Failure history and spare-parts use for that asset |
| Rejects rising after a product change | Process window or settings | Process parameters and specifications |
| Energy per unit rising across the site | Utilities, insulation, compressed-air leaks, ageing motors | Sub-metering or a short measurement campaign |
| All ratios slowly worsening | General ageing or management routines | Maintenance plan, training, staffing |
Key point: A pattern is a hypothesis to verify, not a conclusion.
What does a trend worksheet look like?
Hypothetical example — values invented to show the layout
Assumptions: one packing line, 2 shifts, output in good tonnes, costs in the same currency each year.
| Ratio | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Change Y1→Y3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Good tonnes per operating hour | 4.0 | 3.8 | 3.5 | −12.5% |
| Unplanned downtime, % of planned time | 6% | 8% | 11% | +5 points |
| kWh per tonne | 95 | 96 | 97 | +2% |
| Maintenance cost per tonne | 10 | 12 | 15 | +50% |
Change (%) = (Year 3 − Year 1) ÷ Year 1 × 100
In this invented case, downtime and maintenance cost move together while energy per tonne barely changes — a reason to look first at equipment condition on the line, not at site utilities.
What if data is missing or unreliable?
- Write down which months or ratios are missing, and why
- Do not fill gaps with averages in the trend itself; show them as gaps
- Run a short, deliberate measurement period (for example two to four weeks) on the most important ratio
- Use temporary meters or manual counts where systems do not record data
- Label any estimate clearly in the baseline you later share with suppliers
How does the trend become your baseline?
Take the most recent representative period — after excluding one-off events — as the baseline for each ratio. State the period, the method and the data source. This becomes the 'before' value in your project brief, your business case and later your acceptance tests.
Key point: Measure the baseline the same way you will measure the result.
Free, optional tools
Use the framework on your own, or with these free tools. Nothing here commits you to anything.
- Expansion readiness data checklist (CSV)List each report, its source and the years you hold; mark gaps before any supplier talks.
- Master Project PlannerOutcome, scope, budget and timeline in one place.
- OPEX calculatorPlanning estimate of annual operating cost.
- Total cost of ownership calculatorCompare whole-life cost under your assumptions.
- RFQ BuilderTurn the brief into one structured request.
- Case-study evidence templateSeparate verified results from illustrative scenarios when you document the project.
Sector-specific projects
Global B2B Group covers cross-sector industrial projects. Single-sector projects are handled in depth by the group's specialist platforms.
Frequently asked questions
Do we need a CMMS or MES to do this?
No. Spreadsheets with production reports, maintenance logs and invoices are enough to start. Software helps with detail, but consistent definitions matter more.
Is OEE the right measure?
OEE (availability × performance × quality) is useful when it is calculated the same way every time. ISO 22400-2 describes common KPI definitions for manufacturing operations.
How do we handle a year affected by an unusual event?
Keep it in the worksheet, mark the event, and show results with and without that period.
Can Global B2B Group analyse our reports?
Our team can help turn your baseline into a structured RFQ. The analysis of your own operating data and the decisions based on it remain yours.
Turn your baseline into a project brief
Once the baseline is clear, the free project planner helps you record targets and constraints. A structured RFQ then asks suppliers to respond against your numbers.
Managed RFQ support applies to projects from USD 250,000. Buyer tools are free; no price, availability, financing or outcome is guaranteed.
Sources and frameworks
Next in this series: When to expand capacity and when to remove a bottleneck in an existing facility
Overview framework: Start with the Outcome: A Practical Framework for Better Agrifood Procurement
General procurement guidance only. World Bank documents are cited as useful methodology frameworks; they are not binding on private buyers. Confirm legal, technical and regulatory requirements with qualified advisers.